Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 21.093299 22.904304 24.857548 27.130859 29.716738 32.581840 36.017564
2025-11-02 18.047050 20.494964 23.316291 26.847489 31.205314 36.484400 43.486594
2025-11-09 16.069612 18.874996 22.277044 26.789078 32.748122 40.552109 51.915533
2025-11-16 14.571455 17.568491 21.351407 26.610251 33.963448 44.274639 60.640943
2025-11-23 13.411355 16.516174 20.566106 26.423725 35.030032 47.864712 69.965825
2025-11-30 12.471316 15.632836 19.872747 26.218333 35.959440 51.328148 79.940266
2025-12-07 11.743894 14.953999 19.367323 26.181610 37.079508 55.231897 91.788380
2025-12-14 11.085654 14.306388 18.830013 26.007890 37.915629 58.766104 104.051161
2025-12-21 10.799364 14.151537 18.976866 26.881674 40.582232 66.095116 127.194381
2025-12-28 10.265051 13.594853 18.471056 26.642352 41.261856 69.767591 143.473931
2026-01-04 9.839150 13.165571 18.119188 26.608300 42.289510 74.351882 164.402360
2026-01-11 9.518637 12.869907 17.946389 26.849297 43.855588 80.453023 193.329469
2026-01-18 9.112154 12.427953 17.523271 26.636604 44.557642 84.918802 220.790932
2026-01-25 8.733885 12.008585 17.108527 26.400771 45.188791 89.434890 252.452271
2026-02-01 8.425103 11.679441 16.817397 26.359727 46.224052 95.305682 295.623529
2026-02-08 8.118059 11.335524 16.477156 26.191324 46.956454 100.612945 342.858557
2026-02-15 7.833227 11.011585 16.148448 26.011502 47.635535 106.013892 398.621459
2026-02-22 7.566432 10.702944 15.825709 25.811691 48.238533 111.421333 464.177406
2026-03-01 7.345681 10.458037 15.597312 25.776178 49.230150 118.455354 556.661413
2026-03-08 7.118802 10.192117 15.315653 25.606474 49.867085 124.584378 659.377456
2026-03-15 7.061002 10.202672 15.523070 26.460789 53.262151 142.156489 947.892959
2026-03-22 6.848096 9.942868 15.227419 26.226870 53.749028 148.893349 1147.309360
2026-03-29 6.676018 9.744744 15.033087 26.193591 54.785854 158.479087 1468.205665